Is the next change going to be a cut or a raise? Is there going to be a cut this year? If so, will it be one or two cuts?
Before the pandemic we were in an era of “secular stagnation”. Thanks to an ageing population and the rise of mega investors such as sovereign wealth funds and deca-billionaires, there was a large pool of savings chasing comparatively few productive investment opportunities. The great companies of the modern era had essentially been built with good ideas and a few laptops, not masses of financial capital like the great companies of the early 20th century.
By historical standards that is still pretty low. From the mid-1990s until the 2008 financial crisis official rates hovered between about 5 and 7 per cent. So, we are likely to have an era of historically cheap money, but very far away from the almost “free money” that we had for the decade before the end of the coronavirus pandemic.Given that we have a cash rate of 4.35 per cent at present, all the energy being consumed inof 25 basis points seems rather quaint.
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