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RBA interest rates: CBA tips one rate cut this year amid drop in retail sales

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Last week’s hot inflation data reignited the prospect of further rate increases, but Tuesday’s weak retail sales numbers have traders walking back those expectations.

Already a subscriber?Commonwealth Bank says the next move from the Reserve Bank will be lower and is tipping one interest rate cut in November.

“We have pencilled in one 25 basis point rate cut in each quarter over 2025,” said CBA’s head of Australian economics, Gareth Aird. “Such an outcome would see the end‑2025 cash rate at 3.1 per cent .” in the first three months of this year, up from 0.6 per cent in the December quarter, and above market expectations of 0.8 per cent.

The weak data gave RBA governor Michele Bullock more space to present a “balanced” message at its next meeting on May 7, Mr Williamson said.

 

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RBA interest rates: Reserve Bank of Australia will struggle to cut rates this year, survey showsThe RBA is expected to be the last major central bank to start cutting interest rates and economists predict the cash rate will remain on hold at least until November.
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