RBA should now 'in theory' hike interest rates in June, but will it?

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Inflation,Reserve Bank,Analysis

Inflation is rising again, and that's a problem for both the government and the Reserve Bank, writes David Taylor.

It's rising because some once heavily discounted items in the shops, former Treasury economist Warren Hogan says, aren't being so heavily discounted any more.

The trimmed mean measure, for example, which looks at inflation without or the ups and downs, rose from 4.0 per cent to 4.1 per cent over the 12 months to April.It's clear, however, there's still plenty of money being pumped into the economy and this is lifting what economist and the Reserve Bank call "aggregate" or overall demand.

Warren Hogan thinks Wednesday's inflation data will push the RBA into hiking interest rates at its June meeting. "It'll obviously do a lot of damage to households that have got large mortgages and significant mortgage repayments."Maybe there needs to be two more rate hikes," Warren Hogan said. Diana Mousina says it would be difficult to justify an RBA interest rate hike amid weak economic growth." very weak retail data, and the GDP result for next week is going to look pretty soft," she said.Perhaps this comment from senior Marcus Today markets analysts, Henry Jennings, provides some sort of synthesises for the interest rate debate.

But that's also ahead of billions of extra dollars in state and federal government stimulus later this year and the potential for a Fair Work increase in the minimum wage.Australians among 560 million users around the world caught in Ticketmaster hack

 

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