China set to cut benchmark rate after first GDP contraction on record: analysts

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China is widely expected to cut its benchmark lending rate on Monday to provide further support for the coronavirus-hit economy, which shrank for the first time on record in the first quarter, a Reuters survey of traders and analysts found.

FILE PHOTO: A businessman walks by Beijing's Central Business District as the spread of the new coronavirus disease continues in China, April 17, 2020, REUTERS/Thomas Peter/File Photo

Forty-six respondents believed the one-year LPR would be reduced by 20 basis points , mimicking a cut in the central bank’s medium-term funding costs this week. Six expected a more modest 10 bps cut to 3.95% from the current 4.05%. The overwhelmingly high expectations for a cut to the lending benchmark rate came after the People’s Bank of China lowered the interest rate on its medium-term lending facility for financial institutions to the lowest level on record this week. That gauge serves as the guide to the LPR.

Despite some signs of improvement in March as Beijing restarted its economic engines, analysts say a recovery will take time. Analysts in a separate Reuters poll said full-year growth could be the weakest in over 40 years.

 

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