The truth about the strange behaviour of interest rates

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However much RBAInfo governor Philip Lowe lacks an “appetite” for moving to negative interest rates, if big central banks go further down that path, he’ll have little choice but to join them, writes 1RossGittins.

In these unprecedented times, Reserve Bank governor Dr Philip Lowe is having trouble explaining his actions and motivations because there are various things someone with his degree of influence feels he can’t admit. But I’m under no such constraint. So let me have a go at giving you the message he won’t.

By the Reserve’s board meeting early last March, it was clear the virus would slow the economy a bit, so Lowe cut the official rate to 0.5 per cent. Within a fortnight it had become clear the pandemic was a much bigger deal.after an emergency meeting, Lowe announced another cut, taking the official rate down to 0.25 per cent

To this end, he has denied that monetary policy has run out of fire power. As he’s stepped further and further into unconventional measures, he’s suppressed his former reservations about their effectiveness and possible adverse side-effects, and striven to give the impression that everything’s under control and going fine. Monetary policy is playing an important part in getting the jobless back to work.

Lowe isn’t “targeting the dollar” at a particular level or as a goal in its own right. But he cares deeply about the level of our currency’s rate of exchange against the currencies of our trading partners because this greatly affects the international price competitiveness of our export and import-competing industries, and thus how much they produce and how many people they employ.

 

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RBAInfo 1RossGittins Stop this; make the interest rates fair so people can deposit cash and others have a manageable rate. Then leave it there.

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