Should banks now repay their multibillion-dollar RBA subsidy?

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Official interest rates are poised to soon rise and turn on a multibillion-dollar subsidy to commercial banks from the Reserve Bank of Australia and, indirectly, from taxpayers.

Money markets have very aggressive – almost unbelievable – pricing of a 2.5 per cent cash rate by December 2022 and 3.4 per cent by late 2023. Yet even if the cash rate rises more moderately, as market economists expect, the subsidy would be worth several billion dollars.The banks were not eligible for JobKeeper, but this is their version of overcompensation.

Sub-2 per cent fixed rate mortgages were available as a result. The cheap money contributed to a surge in house prices and a strong rebound in the economy as the wealth effect encouraged home owners to spend. There was a less noticeable uptick in small business lending. Nevertheless, as the RBA cash rate rises – likely in May – the central bank will be on a losing carry trade against the commercial banks.

One option for the RBA – perhaps with some prodding from the government after the election – is to ask the banks to repay early the $188 billion term funding. The RBA would not be able to pay a lower rate on exchange settlement balances because this would interfere with the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The banks would refuse to park their excess liquidity at the RBA because they could earn a higher rate elsewhere.Banks argue they passed on the cheap TFF funds to households and small business. That is true of the money that was lent, but not the excess liquidity parked at the RBA.

 

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Why should they offer to repay more than the agreed amount. It was a semi stimulus package which flowed through to consumers.

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