ANZ predicts a worse housing market slowdown

ANZ’s predicted 11 per cent decline will still leave dwelling prices above pre-pandemic levels, given the 25 per cent surge home values have enjoyed since late 2020.

But a higher official lending rate of 2.35 per cent, which equate to a variable mortgage rate of 4.75 per cent, will “significantly” reduce borrowing capacity, the economists said. More expensive credit, along with a greater supply of homes on the market and macroprudential tightening – likely targeting high-risk borrowers with high debt-to-income and high loan-to-value ratios – would trigger a price decline in Sydney this year of 7 per cent, with a further 8 per cent fall next year, they said.Brisbane , Adelaide and Perth would all rise this year before declines next year of 9 per cent, 13 per cent and 7 per cent respectively, the economists said.

Not all pressure on the housing market will be to downwards, however. Rising immigration, a tight rental market, cashed-up households and falling unemployment will be supportive, Ms Emmett and Ms Timbrell said.outlined ahead of Saturday’s federal election could, ironically, also push prices higher and stem declines in dwelling values.

The Coalition plan to let first home buyers tap up to $50,000 of their super fund balance could boost prices by more than that as they could lever the cash they take out as a deposit to borrow more,

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