of negative GDP growth. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the usual definition of a recession.Worrisome recessions extend beyond two quarters. And while consumer spending in Canada and the U.S. shows signs of slipping, it remains robust. And both countries are at full employment.
That points to a sluggish North American economy well into next year, but not a severe downturn as we experienced in the Great Recession or the pandemic recession. For the BoC, that means getting today’s inflation rate of 8.1 per cent down to two per cent. The U.S. inflation rate is 9.1 per cent. Prices for wheat, corn, crude oil, nickel, copper, lumber and other basic commodities have tumbled by 20 per cent to 60 per cent from their peaks earlier this year.
Employers are also beginning to freeze or cut payrolls, with companies as varied as Ford Motor Co. and Ottawa-based e-commerce leader Shopify Inc. recently announcing layoffs.
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