Reduced demand weighs on base metal, lumber prices

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Interest rates and inflation continue to drive commodity markets as crude oil rose in the last month, while copper prices have been falling this year with an expected economic slowdown

to raise rates by 0.75 of percentage point when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on Wednesday. That would move the Fed funds rate to a range of 3.75 per cent to 4 per cent range. The Bank of Canada last week raised its benchmark rate by a less-than-expected 0.5 per cent to 3.75 per cent.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.6 per cent in the third quarter, according to GDP data released last week by the U.S. Commerce Dept. That’s a sharp turnaround after two quarters of GDP contraction. For a snapshot of how commodities have been moving in price over the past month, in the energy sector we see oil up 5 per cent, gasoline up 12 per cent and natural gas down 7 per cent.seems to have found a price floor in late September around US$76 a barrel. Over the past month crude has moved in the US$80 to US$92 range.

One energy commodity to watch is diesel fuel, which has only 25 days of reserves available, a low not seen since 2008. This drawdown is due in part to the U.S. ban on the import of Russia petroleum products, including diesel, along with U.S. refinery closings this year.Copper prices, like most base metals, have been falling this year with an expected economic slowdown. Copper has been in a range around US$3.50 a pound, down from US$4.50 this summer and off 30 per cent from its peak in March.

 

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