For that reason, market pros expect the Fed chair to sound hawkish, and that could rattle stocks and send bond yields higher. Yields move opposite price.
"I think he's going to try to execute the fine art of getting off the 75 [basis points] without creating euphoria and influencing financial conditions too easy," said Rick Rieder, BlackRock chief investment officer of global fixed income."I think the way the market is pricing, I think that's what they're going to do, but I think he's really got to thread the needle on not getting people too excited about the direction of travel.
"I think [Powell] will say that four 75-basis point hikes is an awful lot and with this long and variable lag, you need to step back and see the impact. You're seeing it in housing. You're starting to see it in autos," said Rieder."You're seeing it in some of the retailer slowdowns, and you're certainly seeing it in the surveys. I think the idea that you're slowing, it's important how he describes it.
The Fed should be dependent on incoming data, and while inflation is coming down, the pace of decline is unclear, Rieder said.Consumer inflation in September ran atGapen expects the economy to dip into a shallow recession in the first quarter. He said the equity market would be concerned if inflation were to stay so high the Fed would have to raise rates even more sharply than expected, threatening the economy even more.
"The markets want to be relieved, particualy the equity maket," said Rieder."I think what happens to the equity market and the bond market are different because of the technicals and the leverage. ... But I think the market wants to believe that the Fed, they're going to get to 5% and stay there for awhile. People are tired of getting bludgeoned, and I think they want to believe the bludgeoning is over.
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