Money markets had bet on a 25-basis-point increase, but a slim majority of economists in a Reuters poll expected a 50-bps move.
“Looking ahead, Governing Council will be considering whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation to target,” the bank said in a statement. Money markets moved to price in a terminal rate, or peak level for interest rates this cycle, of 4.43% in June, up about 7 basis points from before the policy decision. That suggests markets see about a 70% chance of another, 25-bps hike.
“We would not rule out a final 25 basis point interest rate hike in January, but the Bank is very close to the end of its tightening cycle,” Brown said in a note.
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