Bank of Canada raises rates, signals halt in tightening campaign

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The Bank of Canada lifted interest rates by half a percentage point to their highest level in 15 years, and has opened the door to a pause in its tightening campaign.

The Bank of Canada lifted its policy interest rates by half a percentage point to the highest in almost 15 years and opened the door to a pause in its historic tightening campaign.

“That was the first major change to language on future hikes since the Bank of Canada began lifting rates as the Council opened the door to a pause at its next meeting,” said Taylor Nugent, an economist at NAB. ING forecasts a follow-up 0.25 percentage point increase at the policy meeting in January, but with a low conviction.

Meanwhile, the bond market is signalling the risk of a deeper recession than currently expected. The yield on the Canadian 10-year government bond has dropped more than 100 basis points below the 2-year yield, marking the biggest inversion of Canada’s yield curve since at least 1994 and deeper than the US Treasury yield curve inversion.

“The US is inverting rapidly and probably going to minus 100, and we may be flattening further as well to a minus number one day,” said Peter Sheahan, a director of money market at Curve.in the September quarter from the previous three months and was 5.9 per cent stronger from a year ago. It is projected to slow materially in 2023 as higher inflation and rising borrowing costs slash savings and drag on consumer spending.

 

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