In a recent note entitled “Past the peak,” Josh Nye, senior economist at RBC, predicts that “peak policy rates are in sight.”
Even though Canada is expected to fall into recession in the first half of 2023, “excess demand and above-target inflation will keep the BoC from reacting to that slowdown as quickly as it has in past cycles,” he said.RBC expects the Bank of Canada to hold its rate at 4.25 per cent throughout 2023 before cutting 50 basis points in the first quarter of 2024. By the end of that year it predicts the rate will be down to 3 per cent.
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