expect a fall of 12 per cent peak to trough, but you have to put that in the context of a market that last spring was up more than 20 per cent year-on-year.
That is what I mean by saying that the increases coming through are starting to do the job. The central bankers have been so wrong about inflation over the past year that they are not yet confident of this. So they will push rates up a bit more. But once inflation is clearly falling, they will relax – and that, I predict, will happen in the spring.So how high will rates go? My guess here is that the Bank of England’s base rate will top out at 4 per cent.
There could be some further and unexpected global horror. We still have to get through the winter. But while you can never be confident about a turning point until you are well past it, I do think we are past the peak in inflation. The old beast is being beaten back into its cage, and that is a relief in troubled times.
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