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But other aspects of the Fed’s projections, notably a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6 percent from the current 3.7 percent, are consistent with a downturn settling in as the central bank keeps its target policy rate at a “restrictive level” for at least the next two years. Still, Powell said, repeating the hard-line on enforcing the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target that he has developed through the year, “the largest amount of pain, the worst pain, would come from a failure to raise rates high enough and from us allowing inflation to become entrenched.”
The message from the Fed on Wednesday also leaned against market expectations that recent data showing slowing inflation might push the central bank from its hawkish path and move policymakers toward cutting rates before the end of next year. “Taken together, today’s statement and economic projections tell a simple, but persuasive story: this Fed isn’t prepared to ‘pivot’ in any meaningful way until it sees sustained and conclusive evidence of a reversal in inflationary pressures,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay.
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