While the Bank of Canada finished 2022 moving from ultrahawkish to a more measured tone, the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank have all continued to talk tough. Foreign-exchange markets are all about relative relationships, so for the Canadian dollar, the relatively less aggressive Bank of Canada means lower rates compared with major peers.
Alberta’s new government under Premier Danielle Smith is looking for a fight with the federation. And several of her signature initiatives, such as separating from the Canada Pension Plan, and setting up a provincial tax-collection agency and provincial police force, will not come cheap. A coming spring election in Alberta makes these risks even greater. For these and other reasons, the province’s fiscal position in 2023 will be an important chart to watch.China’s economy suffered badly in 2022, with consumer confidence and spending particularly depressed. But that could all be about to change now that the country’s
For more than a decade, quality-related factors were relatively stable, while transportation factors such as pipeline constraints were far more volatile. But 2022 was different. Pipeline capacity was largely sufficient – at least until Looking ahead into 2023, WCS’s quality issues are expected to ease alongside refining bottlenecks, while transportation-related factors, while still far better than much of the pre-COVID experience, will only get tighter until the Trans Mountain Expansion Project enters service.Who needs an economist when we have the U.S. Conference Board’s leading economic indicator? The data go back to 1959 and never fail to signal the storm clouds at turning points in the cycle.
is typical for the year that follows the Fed tightening cycle – think 1982, think 1990, think 2001 and think 2007.