South Korea's Q4 GDP likely shrank, hints at possible recession - Reuters poll

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South Korea's export-dependent economy is forecast to have contracted in the fourth quarter, putting in its worst performance in 2-1/2 years as falling foreign demand and rising interest rates hurt private consumption, a Reuters poll found.

Asia's fourth-largest economy is expected to have shrunk by a seasonally-adjusted 0.3% in the October-December quarter after growing 0.3% in the preceding period.

"The near-term growth outlook remains challenging amid the global tech downcycle and a faltering property market. The weak growth backdrop supports the case for an extended pause by the Bank of Korea." But as inflation cools and growth declines investors have boosted bets the BOK has reached the end of its rate hike cycle, which would make it the first central bank in the region to do so.

 

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