This little-known metric tells you how a mortgage-rate move impacts your ability to buy a home

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The National Association of Home Builders ‘price-out estimate’ focuses on how mortgage rate increases or decreases change housing accessibility.

Welcome to the MarketWatch Metrics column, where we regularly take a deep dive into one data point that is meaningful to the financial world and your money. There are so many metrics that can help us make informed financial decisions. We explain how they are derived and what we can learn from them.How... Welcome to the MarketWatch Metrics column, where we regularly take a deep dive into one data point that is meaningful to the financial world and your money.

This “priced-out” metric is particularly relevant now because the lack of supply in the housing market compared to the amount of new household formations has pushed demand and prices up in recent years. Since the Great Recession, building has slowed to a point where there is now a deficit of almost six million homes in the U.S. according to a November report from Realtor.com.

That’s why the next “priced-out” forecast for 2023 will be more focused on mortgage-rate increases, according to economist Doctor Na Zhao, who writes the report for NAHB.

 

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