What To Expect From February’s CPI Inflation Numbers

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February's release of CPI inflation data for January 2022 will inform how quickly the Fed moves to stop raising interest rates. Core inflation and housing costs are likely the areas to watch.

That said, there has been the start of a declining trend in core inflation since September 2022, as inflation has move slightly lower and pricing in many categories has eased. If that trend is sustained, it may cause the Fed to become more optimistic on declining inflation. Nonetheless, the current lack of any sharp decline in core inflation, despite encouraging headline numbers worries the Fed. Ideally for markets, February's CPI data will show more of a robust decline in core inflation..

However, oil prices are currently trending up in January, which may mean that the benefit from falling energy costs in recent inflation reports starts to wane, and nowcast data on inflation trends from January is not too optimistic either. Both the Fed and markets agree that the Fed is close to the top of the interest rate cycle, but if February’s inflation report doesn’t show continued material declines in inflation, then the Fed may add more hikes in 2023 than the markets currently anticipate.

 

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