WASHINGTON—The outlook for the global economy is growing slightly brighter as China eases its zero-Covid policies and the world shows surprising resilience in the face of high inflation, elevated interest rates and Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine.
“Global conditions have improved as inflation pressures started to abate,” the IMF chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said at a news conference in Singapore. “The road back to a full recovery with sustainable growth, stable prices and progress for all has only started.” Together, China and India should account for half of this year’s global growth, while the United States and Europe contribute 10 percent, according to Gourinchas.
Russia’s economy, hit by sanctions after its invasion of Ukraine, has proved sturdier than expected, too: The IMF’s forecast foresees Russia registering 0.3 percent growth this year. That would mark an improvement from a contraction of 2.2 percent in 2022. And it’s well above the 2.3 percent contraction for 2023 that the IMF had forecast for Russia in October.
The IMF noted that the world economy still faces serous risks. They include the possibility that Russia’s war against Ukraine war will escalate, that China will suffer a sharp increase in Covid cases and that high interest rates will cause a financial crisis in debt-laden countries.