. The S&P 500 fell 2% Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 697 points and the Nasdaq composite fell 2.5%. Home Depot fell to one of the market’s sharper losses after it gave a financial forecast that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. Treasury yields kept climbing on worries that the Federal Reserve will need to stay aggressive on keeping rates high to fight inflation. Higher rates slow the economy, and the concern is they could cause a recession.
The other main lever is also looking precarious as interest rates continue to rise. When safe bonds are paying higher amounts of interest, they make stocks and other investments look less attractive. Why take a lot of risk on stocks if safer things are paying out more? Higher rates also raise the risk of a recession because they slow the economy in hopes of snuffing out inflation.
“That is what's weighing on the market,” said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services. The latest evidence came from a preliminary report Tuesday that suggested business activity is gaining momentum. The services industry likely returned to growth last month and was at an eight-month high, according to S&P Global. Manufacturing, meanwhile, may still be contracting, but the reading hit a four-month high.
The worry is that the Fed could ratchet up its forecasts for rates further next month when it releases its latest projections for the economy. Besides showing more strength in the job market and retail sales than expected, recent reports have also suggested inflation is not cooling as quickly and as smoothly as hoped.
“This is the first time in over a decade the Fed has had to worry about inflation,” he said. “What happened last year has created scar tissue that could keep rates higher for longer.”