Entitlement Reform Isn’t Coming. That’s Bad For Markets

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America's near-term fiscal health is not in danger. There is still room for new spending and tax cuts. But the more policymakers delay the inevitable reckoning on entitlement reform, the more painful it will be.

Waiting to act on reforming Social Security means higher taxes and lower benefits. Per the

, maintaining the solvency of Social Security would require a 3.2% payroll tax increase and a 20% scheduled benefit reduction today or a higher 4.1% payroll tax increase and a steeper 25% scheduled benefit reduction later at the point of insolvency.that waiting just four years significantly increases the costs and efficacy of any reforms. It means steeper cuts to providers, fewer benefits for enrollees, and/or higher taxes.

Delaying entitlement reform also hurts the broader market. Letting the key drivers of deficit grow unfettered only increases the net interest the government must pay on debt. That number as a share of GDP isFederal Outlays: Interest as Percent of Gross Domestic Product [FYOIGDA188S], retrieved from FRED,U.S. Office of Management and Budget and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

An increase in net interest costs crowds out other government objectives. There are fewer resources for increased spending and tax cuts. The shift today toward a more robust industrial policy could be greatly curtailed by debt obligations. That means less money for defense development, clean energy deployment, and a burgeoning semiconductor industry.Entitlement reform isn't happening this year. It certainly won’t happen next year during an election.

If Biden wins re-election and Republicans retake the Senate, there's an opportunity. Biden will have run his last election. It's possible the octogenarian McConnell will be eying the exits when his term ends in 2026. The two will be looking at their legacies as the debt becomes more precarious. McConnell

 

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Seems like you might care about the majority of Americans who need and deserve these 'entitlements' they've paid for more than the markets.

How about “thou shall tax billionaires and greedy corporations more”? Just a thought from a peasant who doesn’t wanna see grandma homeless wednesdaythought GreedIsTheft GOPHypocrisy

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