"Unless the ECB sees the inflation outlook significantly different than one week ago, anything but a 50 basis point move would be a big mistake and hurt credibility," Danske Bank economist Piet Haines Christiansen said.
This outlook is so worrying that prior to the turmoil in the banking sector, which could derail the ECB's strategy and the whole economy, a long list of policymakers had advocated rate hikes continuing beyond March.the ECB's resolve and have dialled back bets on the size of Thursday's move and subsequent rate hikes. Money market pricing suggests that investors now see just a 30% chance of a 50 basis point increase, down from as high as 90% early on Wednesday.
Hoping to prop up confidence, the Swiss National Bank said late on Wednesday that it was ready to provide Credit Suisse with liquidity, if necessary, though the bank met all capital and liquidity requirements. ECB President Christine Lagarde will almost certainly try to reassure investors on the health of the bloc's banks, arguing that they are better capitalised, more profitable and more liquid than during previous periods of turmoil.
Russian sanctions are working as intended; to cause pains to Western citizens
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