Their analysis focused on periods in history when credit growth slowed dramatically dating back to the 1980s, finding that Canadian bank stocks were less sensitive to slowing credit and recessions than the U.S. in the past eight periods of credit deceleration.
Canada’s biggest banks enjoyed strong loan growth in recent years, save for a temporary dip early in the pandemic. The year-over-year pace of growth began to decline again in late 2022, according to Scotiabank’s charts., BMO chief economist Doug Porter and senior economist Sal Guatieri noted that Canadian banks have so far have kept above the chaos, but the scar that central bank credit tightening leaves on the economy is too big to ignore.
The pair pointed to the Bank of Canada’s senior loan officer survey’s findings that business lending conditions were somewhat tighter than normal in the final few months of 2022. They said it didn’t compare to the tightening seen in the 2008 global financial crisis, but it was still one of the biggest swings in the 23-history of the survey.Article content
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