Fed Expects 'Mild Recession' This Year After Banking Crisis Rattles Markets

for the Fed to quit its rate hike campaign to focus its efforts on stabilizing the banking sector. The Fed upped rates at its last nine meetings, sending the federal funds rate from near zero to 4.75% to 5%, a 16-year high, as it used its primary tool to cool inflation. The Fed’s war on inflation has started to bear fruits, with inflation cooling to its lowest annualized level since May 2021 last month, though the 5% inflation rate remains far above the bank’s 2% target.

The futures market implies a 28% chance the central bank will keep rates the same and a 72% chance it will again raise rates by 25 basis points,“Central banks recognize…the trade-off between inflation coming down over a longer period of time and the potential to severely damage economic and financial conditions,” Rick Rieder, head of BlackRock’s global allocation investment unit, wrote in a Wednesday note to clients.

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