Tighter lending conditions after recent bank failures will likely drive the U.S. economy into a shallow recession in the second half of this year, bolstering the case for a gradual increase in exposure to long-term bonds in anticipation of a decline in interest rates, a Vanguard executive said on Monday.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said this weekend banks are likely to become more cautious and may restrict lending further, possibly negating the need for further interest rate hikes by the Fed. But there was less conviction on subsequent steps with investors pricing in multiple scenarios, including potentially a rate cut as early as June, according to CME Group data.