Analysis | When will the debt ceiling battle end? Most likely at the cliff’s edge.

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Analysis: Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen announced this week that the government could default on its debt obligations as soon as June 1 if Congress doesn’t increase the debt ceiling.

because it just amounts to paying your bills, and spending cuts can be addressed elsewhere through the budgeting process.)That territory is uncharted because we haven’t actually breached the deadline before. But we’ve come close. Repeatedly on the debt ceiling and matters like it, Congress has run right up to the deadline before one side caves, or the two sides come to an agreement.

, with the House voting that night and the Senate following the next day to set up the “super committee” and the budget sequester.voting around 2 a.m.That deal still left the clock ticking on the debt ceiling. A mid-March 2013 deadline became an Oct. 17 deadline after a short-term deal, and Congress faced both a potential shutdown and a potential default around the same time. But even as a shutdown kicked in on Oct.

, in which you dare your opponent to take things too far, and both sides wait for the other to yield. The deadlinethe leverage. Nobody has an incentive to cave earlier than that, in the hope that the other side will first. To the extent it might get resolved earlier than the final hours or days, it will be because enough members of one party lose their stomach for this form of brinkmanship, or because party leaders decide the costs of what lies ahead might be too great for their side. (History suggests that

 

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