A long strike could impact the already struggling movie theater business, where some major exhibitor chains went bankrupt during the pandemic lockdown. The industry has only slowly and partly recovered, with U.S. ticket sales still lagging far behind pre-pandemic levels.
By contrast, the report suggests that the least vulnerable operators are “global streaming platforms that are well positioned financially, and major studios and broadcasters with deeper and more globally diverse production and libraries, that are well-diversified beyond TV and film and have relatively strong balance sheets.
“This is because the dispute comes when these companies are under pressure to mitigate the secular decline in linear outlets, and show they can operate streaming platforms at a profit,” the report said. “We estimate an improved three-year contract for writers will ultimately cost media companies for which we have credit ratings $250 million to $350 million per year.”