Explainer: Parsing the Fed's path to a pause

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U.S. Federal Reserve officials may still be fighting a war against inflation, but they nevertheless opened the door at their May meeting to the possibility that interest rates won't have to rise any further from the current 5% to 5.25% range.

They will now have until June 14 to choose whether to walk through that door, with key data on jobs, inflation, credit conditions and the health of the banking system over the next six weeks informing the decision, public comments from Fed officials shaping the debate, and analysts already looking for clues.came in stronger than expected, with the economy adding 253,000 positions across a broad set of industries, and wage growth remaining at a strong 4.4% annual rate.

Officials will watch things like retail sales closely to see if households are pulling back, which should force companies to become more competitive on price.The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, became an important series for the Fed during the pandemic for its insight on labor market dynamics, including the rate at which workers are quitting - a sign of employee leverage and tight markets - and the number of open jobs - a sign of company demand for employees.

 

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