Apart from the RBI’s likely status quo, recent improvements in the prices of WTI crude, India’s major import item, also weigh on the Indian Rupee and propel the USD/INR price. That said, WTI crude oil remains mildly bid near $71.70 as it justifies a downbeat US Dollar and a surprise draw in the weekly Oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute .
Elsewhere, US Dollar Index struggles to defend the previous day’s corrective bounce while making rounds to 104.10, mostly indecisive on a day by the press time. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus six major currencies suffers from downbeat market bets on the Fed’s next move amid the pre-FOMC blackout for the policymakers. That said, the interest rate futures show a nearly 15% probability of a June rate hike.
It should be noted that the recent weakness in China's trade numbers and previously positive PMIs raise concern about the market’s future and hence weigh on the INR amid the indecision.talks can restrict the USD/INR moves while the pre-RBI anxiety adds strength to the trading restrictions. Even so, a surprise rate hike from the RBI, which is least expected due to the recent easing in Indian inflation, can trigger the Indian Rupee’s rebound from the technical level mentioned below.