— major financial institutions have already formed a consensus for the bank’s July meeting.
Conceding that Wednesday’s announcement was “essentially a coin flip,” Randall Bartlett, Senior Director of Canadian Economics at Desjardins, said he expects there to be yet another 25-bp increase next month as inflation remains sticky., up from 4.3% in March, and well above the BoC’s 2% target. “The Bank of Canada may not be done yet, as there is little evidence the economic indicators the bank is monitoring are meaningfully losing momentum,” Bartlett wrote in anThe prediction of a subsequent 25-bp rate hike in July, as well as the surprise of Wednesday’s announcement, was shared by James Orlando, CFA, Director and Senior Economist at TD.
With “robust” employment gains and inflationary wage increases allowing Canadians to keep spending in spite of high interest rates, and a “massive resurgence” in the real estate market brought on by the temporary pause in rate hikes, the BoC is “back in hiking mode,” Orlando
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