Until recently, few economists expected rate hikes to be on the table at all this summer. Most thought the bank’s aggressive monetary policy tightening campaign of 2022 and early 2023 would have dragged the Canadian economy into a recession by now.
Canadian economic data was uniformly strong ahead of the June decision. It is now more mixed. Job creation, for example, exceeded expectations last month, but wage growth slowed and unemployment ticked up., largely thanks to lower oil prices. However, “core” measures of inflation, which strip out volatile energy and food prices, are proving sticky.
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