Should you brace for more mortgage pain? Predictions ahead of RBA's rate call

Three of the big four banks are forecasting a rate rise in August.Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike interest rates for the 13th time in less than 18 months, or leave them on hold on Tuesday? It could go either way, economists say.

Core inflation — a measure that strips out volatile food and fuel items — peaked at 6.9 per cent in the December quarter. It came in at 6.6 per cent in the March quarter, and 5.9 per cent in the June quarterWhat could influence the RBA's interest rate decision? A future-looking measure of the inflation picture shows consumer prices growing at a faster clip in July compared to the previous month.

"One for those looking for the RBA to hike tomorrow - uncertainty around the inflation outlook persists a little more in Australia than elsewhere," he wrote on social media on Monday.Commonwealth Bank forecasts one final quarter of a percentage point rate hike in August, which would bring rates to 4.35 per cent.

The RBA shadow board, made up of macroeconomists from the Australian National University, is narrowly leaning towards a pause on Tuesday.

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