Traders bet Fed rate hikes are over, cuts to start in 2024

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Federal Reserve policymakers are unlikely to raise interest rates again in 2023 and will probably start cutting them early next year, traders bet on Thursday, after a U.S. government report showed consumer prices rose only moderately last month.

The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger

They had seen about a 14% chance of a rate hike next month before the Labor Department report showed the July consumer price index rose 3.2% from a year ago, following a 3% year-over-year increase in June. The Fed has driven its policy rate up by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022 to bring inflation back down to its 2% goal. Analysts said July's slight acceleration in year-over-year consumer price inflation - its first in 13 months - was a mathematical artifact of the CPI's 40-year-high peak of 9% last year, and not an indication of worsening underlying trends.

 

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