Dollar demand to dampen U.S. debt fears

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U.S. debt sustainability is back in the spotlight after Fitch downgraded the U.S. credit rating this month

. High interest rates and bond yields are increasing the amount Washington must pay to service the federal debt, which neither economic growth nor inflation look like sufficiently eroding.

“The role of the dollar as the world’s major reserve currency is beginning to be eroded by its weakness and the inability of the Carter Administration to check its fall. Investors ... are hurrying to move cash into marks, Swiss francs, and Japanese yen. Foreign central banks are doing the same.”The U.S. currency has gone through many peaks and troughs since then, experiencing significant bouts of official intervention - dollar-buying and selling - along the way.

The dollar is the number one destination for global savings and investment flows, and there is little evidence that its pre-eminent status is under threat. Investors want to hold the world’s reserve currency and be in the world’s deepest, most liquid capital markets. That said, America’s deteriorating fiscal health means there is less room for complacency than ever before. Interest payments as a share of federal revenue, spending, and the economy are set to reach historically high levels early in the next decade.

 

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