Fed Chair Powell could signal the likelihood of high rates for longer in closely watched speech

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When Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers a high-profile speech Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, many analysts think he could make one thing clear: That the Fed plans to keep its benchmark interest rate at a peak level for longer than had been expected.

Powell isn’t likely to say whether the Fed will continue raising rates. But he may signal that any rate cuts are unlikely until well into next year. The central bank has already helped drive inflation down from painfully high levels. But Fed officials have said they need to keep rates high to further slow borrowing and spending and reduce inflation to their 2% target.

Many analysts say that despite the progress the Fed has made so far, Powell can’t afford to let down his guard and say anything that would sound like a declaration of victory. They instead expect him to signal that he intends to keep rates at high levels for as long as needed. Even if the Fed’s policymakers don’t further increase borrowing costs, they’re unlikely to reduce them anytime soon.

Surprisingly, despite the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes, the U.S. unemployment rate stands exactly where it did when Powell spoke last year: 3.5%, barely above a half-century low. Still, Rajan said he doubts the Fed can achieve its 2% inflation goal without causing some rise in unemployment. A higher jobless rate would likely slow wage growth and ease inflation pressures. When layoffs spread, workers are typically less able to gain big pay raises.

 

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Fed Chair Powell could signal the likelihood of high rates for longer in closely watched speechWhen Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers a high-profile speech Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, many analysts think he could make one thing clear: That the Fed plans to keep its benchmark interest rate at a peak level for longer than had been expected.
Source: AP - 🏆 728. / 51 Read more »