Rate Hikes Curb Innovation and Economic Output, Jackson Hole Paper Finds

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Central bank interest-rate increases have a substantial impact on innovation, which in turn can affect the productive capacity of an economy, according to a paper presented Friday at the Federal Reserve’s annual economic policy symposium.

Monetary-policy tightening both reduces firms’ incentive to innovate by decreasing overall demand, and curtails financial investment through less optimal financial conditions and reduced appetite for risk taking, economists Yueran Ma and Kaspar Zimmermann found. Ma presented the paper at the conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, hosted by the Kansas City Fed.

An interest-rate increase of 1 percentage point leads to a 1% to 3% drop in spending on research and development and a 25% decline in venture capital investment in the next one to three years, the authors found. Central banks around the world have raised interest rates to try and cool inflation that was in part driven by outsize demand as economies emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic.

 

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