Central bankers love to steer the market, but the messages coming from European Central Bank officials on what they will do on Thursday are anything but crystal clear.
The decision will be delivered at 2:15 p.m. local time, or 8:15 a.m. Eastern, followed by a press conference a half-hour later. It’s worth noting what ECB executive board member Isabel Schnabel said in a speech at the end of August. She didn’t outright tip her hand in either direction, but noted growth prospects were weaker than what the ECB staff projected in June. Analysts at Barclays say the staff forecast for GDP will be revised downward for 2023 by three-tenths of a percentage point, and the 2024 forecast will be cut by a half point.
“By contrast, should our assessment of the transmission of monetary policy suggest that the pace of disinflation is proceeding as desired, we may afford to wait until our next meeting to gather more evidence on how the slowdown in aggregate demand will feed through to price and wage-setting over time.”