Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations rose slightly last month to 3.6% from 3.5% in July, the New York Fed said Monday. Expectations for what inflation will be at the three-year horizon declined to 2.8% from 2.9%. And the outlook for inflation in five years ticked higher to 3.0% from 2.9%.
Respondents said they thought it was more likely the unemployment rate would be higher one year from now. The perceived odds of losing a job over the next year rose by 2 percentage points to 13.8%, the highest reading since April 2021. The odds of changing jobs voluntarily over the next year rose by 1.9 percentage points to 18.9% in August. The increases for both questions were largest for people with a high school education or less and annual income below $50,000.
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