What will BOJ's policy normalisation path look like?

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The Bank of Japan is under pressure to defend a new cap for long-term interest rates set just six weeks ago, as Governor Kazuo Ueda's hawkish remarks heightened market expectations of a near-term end to its negative interest rate policy.

on Saturday, Ueda said the BOJ could have enough data by year-end to determine whether it can end negative rates, shocking markets that did not see such a move as imminent.

The BOJ will mainly focus on the speed of moves and step in, mainly through emergency bond buying operations, to curb sharp rises in yields, say sources familiar with its thinking. It also likely sees 0.8% as a threshold it wants to defend to avoid the 10-year yield from reaching 1%.The BOJ is also keen to prevent any sharp rise in yields for short- and medium-term notes, as they have a big impact on corporate borrowing costs.

Japan's largest labour organisation Rengo will lay out in early December its target for next year's wage hike, which will set the standard for wage talks between management and unions.

 

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