Fed to leave rates unchanged on Sept. 20; cut unlikely before Q2 2024: Reuters poll

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But other members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee , including some of the more hawkish ones, have raised the possibility of holding off on another rate hike to allow more time to gauge the impact of the cumulative 525 basis points of tightening delivered by the Fed since March 2022.

"Though we continue to expect the Fed to remain on hold at the Sept. 20 FOMC meeting, we would not be surprised to see most officials continue to project one more rate hike by year-end in their updated 'dot plot,'" said Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, referring to the interest rate projections released by Fed policymakers on a quarterly basis.

But the Reuters poll of economists forecast that the jobless rate would average 3.7% this year and rise only slightly to 4.3% in 2024, suggesting the Fed even then will not be far off its goal of full employment. Around 70% of those respondents, 62 of 87, had at least one rate cut by the end of next June. Still, all but five of 28 respondents to an extra question said the bigger risk was that the first Fed cut would come later than they currently forecast.

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Fed to leave rates unchanged on Sept. 20; cut unlikely before Q2 2024: Reuters pollThe Federal Reserve will leave its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged at the end of its Sept. 19-20 policy meeting and probably wait until the April-June period of 2024 or later before cutting it, according to economists in a Reuters poll. Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored the 'higher-for-longer' mantra for rates in a speech at the annual Jackson Hole central banking symposium in August and maintained another rate hike might still be needed to bring inflation down to the 2% target. But other members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), including some of the more hawkish ones, have raised the possibility of holding off on another rate hike to allow more time to gauge the impact of the cumulative 525 basis points of tightening delivered by the Fed since March 2022.
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Fed Is Done Raising Rates and Will Cut Them in 2024, Economists SayThe Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and will likely cut them by roughly one percentage point next year, according to chief economists at some of North America’s largest banks.
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