Demographics, not the Bank of Canada, will drive interest rates higher for longer

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Central bankers can tinker with interest rates, but eventually they will be overwhelmed by an aging workforce

Many investors breathed a sigh of relief when the Bank of Canada chose to leave the benchmark lending rate unchanged at 5 per cent at its meeting on Sept. 6. But that hasn’t stopped the speculation as to whether the next move will be up or down, and the timing of that move.

Much of the analysis in both camps involves an in-depth scrutiny of the speeches and press releases from the, along with personal opinion masquerading as fact. This may be a useful activity if you are a professional trader with a multimillion-dollar portfolio, but the rest of us need a strategic vision which is a lot less time consuming to absorb.the higher-for-longer camp, and my portfolio view is based on the reversal of a long-term demographic trend known as the dependency ratio.

The dependency ratio is the statistic which best illustrates the impact of the baby boom on the domestic economy. The ratio measures that portion of the population outside the labour force age group as a percentage of the employable population .

 

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