Persistent U.S. services inflation dampens oil outlook

U.S. service-sector businesses returned to steady expansion in the third quarter after a brief and scarcely perceptible slowdown in the second quarter, according to business surveys.

The Institute for Supply Management’s services activity index was at 53.6 in September up from a low of 50.3 in May. The acceleration in service-sector price increases was broadly based and similar whether housing rents are included or excluded. Prices have also continued to escalate despite the central bank increasing overnight interest rates by 525 basis points between March 2022 and July 2023.

The full impact of the interest-rate increases so far will continue to filter through and hit interest-sensitive spending over the course of 2024.

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