PHILADELPHIA — High mortgage rates are hammering home buyers, but expect rates to fall over the next year, one industry group says.
Not only is the group expecting a recession in the first half of 2024, but the MBA also forecasts unemployment to rise and inflation to slow, which are signs of a weakening U.S. economy. That will, in turn, push rates down, as the market will expect the Fed to back off on hiking interest rates, they said.
The pandemic years were boom times for the mortgage industry. 2021 was a record year, when $4.4 trillion in mortgages were originated. But for now, lenders should brace for “a little bit more pain” for the next few months, which is generally a slower season for home sales, until a turnaround at the end of spring in 2024, Marina Walsh, vice president of industry analysis at the MBA, said during a presentation.