A look back on the interest rate decisions that have brought Canadian housing to such an unprecedented point in time.Tomorrow marks yet another Bank of Canada interest rate decision — the seventh and second-last of the year — and experts are unanimously calling for a pause.), and have pointed to the sluggish Canadian economy as reason enough for the BoC to hold the policy rate steady at 5% for the remainder of the calendar year.
In the immediate aftermath, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported that March saw a ‘definite slowdown’ in sales activity , following a surge observed in February 2022. While around two-thirds of local markets were in sellers’ markets territory at that time, CREA noted that the remainder had entered into balanced market territory.
While sales continued to edge down in August, activity slipped only nominally , which CREA Chair Jill Oudil noted “could be an early sign that this year’s sharp adjustment in housing markets across Canada may have mostly run its course.”September of last year brought yet another rate hike from the BoC — a 75-basis-point increase that landed the rate at 3.25% .
That same month, national home sales managed a 1.3% month-over-month jump, according to CREA, while the SNLR rose to 54.4% , bringing it closer to sellers’ territory. Oudil noted at the time that “the market’s adjustment to higher rates may be mostly in the rear-view mirror at this point.” She added that CREA anticipated spring would “bring buyers back off the sidelines.”
“With interest rates at a top, and home prices at a bottom, it wasn’t all that surprising to see buyers jumping off the sidelines and back into the market in April,” said Cathcart in April.Alas, all good things must come to an end. In June of this year, the BoC went for a hike of 25 basis points, bringing the rate to 4.75%, citing stronger-than-anticipated GDP and the first inflation uptick in 10 months.
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