back in fashion. Ukraine’s counter-offensive last year was stymied by the so-called Surovikin line: a sprawling array of Russian minefields, trenches, anti-tank obstacles and old-fashioned barbed wire, among other impediments. As Ukrainian forces slowed down to clear mines, bridge ditches and bulldoze obstacles, they were observed by drones and hit with a hail of anti-tank missiles and suicide drones.
Estonian officials estimate their stretch of the border will need around 600 concrete bunkers, each 35 square metres, each capable of holding around ten soldiers and taking a hit from a large shell. Prototype bunkers are being developed and construction is expected to start next year, at a cost of around €60m . The aim is not to create an impregnable fortress but to slow invaders, wear them down and buy time to bring up reinforcements.
The catch is not military engineering but democratic consent. “The most important part is agreement with landowners,” says Ms Lillevali, noting that most of the borderlands are privately owned. She says there has been little sign of pushback from Russian-speaking minorities in the area. Locals may be reassured by the fact that the armed forces do not plan to store explosives near the strongholds in peacetime, nor install anti-personnel landmines, which are illegal under the Ottawa Treaty.
The appeal of fortifications is easy to see. European officials worry that Russia’s breakneck rearmament is outpacing Europe’s own effort to. Baltic leaders have emphasised that even small Russian advances could be existentially threatening to their states. “It cannot be ruled out that within a three to five year period, Russia will test Article 5 and’s assessment in 2023. This is new information that is coming to the fore now.
But Russia’s successful defence has also prompted a wider rethink. Russian fortifications in southern and eastern Ukraine were the most extensive defensive works in Europe since the second world war, according to analysis by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, an American think-tank. They are probably rivalled only by the minefields and obstacles on the inter-Korean border.