FILE - A shopper looks at clothing displayed at a Kohl's in Clifton, N.J., Jan. 26, 2024. On Tuesday, March 12, 2024, the Labor Department issues its report on inflation at the consumer level in February.
Excluding volatile food and energy costs, economists think “core” prices increased 0.3% from January to February, down from a hot 0.4% in the previous month. Compared with 12 months earlier, core prices are projected to have risen 3.7% in February, according to FactSet, down from 3.9% in January, and the smallest rise in nearly three years. Core inflation is watched especially closely because it typically provides a better read of where inflation is likely headed.
Voter perceptions of inflation are sure to occupy a central place in this year’s presidential election. Despite a healthy job market and a record-high stock market, polls show that many Americans blame Presidentfor the surge in consumer prices that began in 2021. Though inflationary pressures have significantly eased, average prices remain about 17% above where they stood three years ago.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled in congressional testimony last week that the central bank is getting closer to cutting rates. After meeting in January, Fed officials said in a statement that they needed “greater confidence” that inflation was steadily falling to their 2% target level. Since then, several of the Fed's policymakers have said they believe prices will keep declining.
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