BENGALURU - The U.S. Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates until at least the end of next year, according to economists in a Reuters poll who gave a 40 percent chance of at least one rate cut by end-2020.
The change in the Fed’s tone lines up with other major central banks which have recently turned dovish, influenced by increasing concerns of a global economic slowdown and political uncertainties like Brexit and the U.S.-China trade war. Only three economists in the poll predict at least one rate cut this year. But the yield spread between U.S. three-month Treasury bills and 10-year notes has already inverted, suggesting a recession is likely in one to two years.
When asked on the probability of a rate cut by end-year, the median of those responding to an additional question was 20 percent. But that jumped to 40 percent for end-2020. Still, nearly a quarter of respondents expect the Fed to raise rates at some point this year on hopes of an economic revival, contradicting the central bank’s latest view.
Trump can’t take credit. End of story.
They need to get ready to refund all that stolen money.
Will the Federal Reserve stop unwinding the scheduled debt, too?
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