US interest rates: Federal Reserve rate cut debate shifts from when toward if

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US policymakers are widely expected to hold rates steady at a more than two-decade high this week, so much of the focus will be on any pivot from the Fed chairman.

Already a subscriber?The debate for the US Federal Reserve is beginning to shift from how many times to cut interest rates this year to whether to cut them at all in 2024.

While Fed leadership has suggested a delay for rate reductions, it is starting to look like a real possibility that policymakers will not cut at all this year.“If the inflation numbers just don’t improve enough, then they’ll stay on hold indefinitely,” said Dean Maki, chief economist at Point72 and a former Fed economist. “We have had a setback in the first quarter, but I don’t think the centre of the committee thinks of it as a permanent setback. They think it’s a bumpy road still.

Much of this week’s FOMC statement will be similar to March. However, the committee might acknowledge that inflation progress has waned in recent months. Mr Powell could reprise his comments from his most recent remarks, in which he said he favoured giving policy more time to work given that the US economy remains strong overall.

 

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