Inflation in Australia is still stubbornly high. Will the RBA raise interest rates again?

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With hopes for a rate cut gone, there is speculation of another rise before the end of 2024. What factors will sway the Reserve Bank’s decision?

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has given few hints as to any changes in the official cash interest rate, as inflation remains higher than expected.Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has given few hints as to any changes in the official cash interest rate, as inflation remains higher than expected.Experts are now questioning whether the Reserve Bank’s next move will to cut the cash rate or raise it.

None of the big four banks expects the RBA’s next move will be an increase, with all still forecasting a rate cut in time for Christmas.The central bank has remained basically silent since its 18-19 March meeting, with no speeches of note and none planned before its meeting next week.Until now, that battle had appeared to favour a cut as the next shift.

“The narrow path is about doing something we’ve never done before anywhere in the modern world – that is get rid of a major inflation without a recession. It’s never happened.”John Hawkins, a senior lecturer at the University of Canberra and formerly an economist at Treasury and the RBA, notes the central bank was expecting headline inflation to be 3.3% by June. The March result of 3.6%, down from December’s 4.1%, meant inflation was on the right track.

Some of the CPI increase came from yearly education and pharmaceutical increases that always land in March, which won’t be repeated in June. Higher petrol prices of late do lean the other way but core inflation trends probably won’t budge. Did the bank consider a case for lifting its cash rate? What might force its hand when its board next meets on 17-18 June?

 

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